I'm struck by Ray Kurzweil's thesis on the exponential rate of progress. I really like and agree with the conclusions he draws on how we will become indistinguishable from our technologies. Many will find it a horrendous idea. Not me. He says broadly that in the next 100 years, at the current rate of progress we will advance 20,000 years. Think about that! "First we build the tools, then they build us." - Marshall McLuhan
The Life Cycle of a technology. The 7 life stages
The precursor stage. Where dreamers, creatives and innovators contemplate elements coming together. Invention. A brief stage where the inventor blends curiosity, scientific skills, determination, and a measure of showmanship. Bringing a new technology to life. The Development part. Where the invention is protected and supported by doting guardians. Often more crucial than invention. May involve greater and additional creation. Tinkerers. The Maturity part. The technology has a life of its own. It is getting woven into community. Into the fabric of life. People say it will live forever. In an inevitable way creating a potential drama when the next stage arrives - the false pretenders start to amass. The upstarts threaten to eclipse the older technology. Enthusiasts for it prematurely predict victory. It emerges that the older technology has some features that people still prefer and the upstarts start to falter meaning the old one gains yet more credibility. This last phase is usually a short lived victory for the older technology. Soon arrives the really really new technology. In this part of the life-cycle, the technology lives out its senior years in gradual decline, its original purpose and functionality now subsumed by a more spry competitor. It Yields. This final stage is possibly only 5-10 percent of a technologies life cycle, it finally yields to antiquity.
I so like the rhythm of that. To me It's like the life of all living things. It is a manifesto for business and for us as human beings as much as it is for technology. Understand it and go with it. Maximize what it actually means. If we don't pay attention to ourselves and our businesses we just get to level 5 and superseded that little earlier. Posted via email from Just Thinking!
I'm struck by Ray Kurzweil's thesis on the exponential rate of progress. I really like and agree with the conclusions he draws on how we will become indistinguishable from our technologies. Many will find it a horrendous idea. Not me. He says broadly that in the next 100 years, at the current rate of progress we will advance 20,000 years. Think about that! "First we build the tools, then they build us." - Marshall McLuhan
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